Miner Company
Causes And Conditions
At present, our most reliable valuation measure (based on correlation with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns over a century of market cycles) stands at the highest extreme in history. Despite record valuations, and, in my view, wildly over-optimistic analyst expectations for profit margins, we should be emphatically clear: our concerns about valuations do not imply any forecast for near-term market behavior.
At present, our most reliable valuation measure (based on correlation with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns over a century of market cycles) stands at the highest extreme in history. Despite record valuations, and, in my view, wildly over-optimistic analyst expectations for profit margins, we should be emphatically clear: our concerns about valuations do not imply any forecast for near-term market behavior.