US consumers, businesses bore about 90% of Trump's tariffs, NY Fed study finds

In a revealing study that challenges long-standing trade rhetoric, the New York Federal Reserve has exposed the economic burden of recent tariffs, demonstrating that American businesses and consumers are bearing the overwhelming majority of these trade penalties. The landmark report unveils that economic weakness underlying trade policies may be more profound than initially understood.

The comprehensive analysis found that in the first eight months of 2025, a staggering 94% of tariff costs were absorbed by U.S. importers and consumers, directly contradicting previous administration claims that foreign nations would shoulder these expenses. This granular economic assessment reveals a more complex trade landscape where inflationary pressures remain nuanced and multifaceted.

Notably, the study observed slight variations in tariff burden distribution throughout the year. While the initial period saw 94% of costs landing on domestic entities, this proportion marginally decreased to 92% in September and October, and further declined to 86% by November, suggesting potential adaptive strategies by international exporters.

For precious metals investors, these findings carry significant implications. The ongoing trade tensions and tariff structures can materially impact global supply chains, potentially influencing industrial demand for silver and gold. The study underscores the intricate relationship between trade policy, consumer costs, and broader economic dynamics.

The White House has maintained an optimistic stance, with spokesperson Kush Desai arguing that despite increased tariff rates, inflation has cooled and corporate profits have risen. However, the New York Fed's rigorous analysis presents a more nuanced economic picture that challenges this narrative.

As the trade landscape continues to evolve, investors should remain vigilant. The potential rollback of steel and aluminum tariffs, coupled with the Supreme Court's ongoing review of these trade measures, suggests a period of significant economic recalibration that could have profound implications for global markets.